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De-confinement and return to normality (?)

The situation after the start of de-confinement in most countries is still full of uncertainties. Seroprevalence (infected persons with antibodies, but without active infection) is being tested, and the situation seems far from being under control. In countries like Spain, for instance, only 5% of the population has been infected by the virus, and other studies in Europe show a prevalence of 4-5 % and even below that (1.9% in Denmark, and 3.2% in the Netherlands), far from “herd immunity”, estimated over 60%. If this is confirmed by further studies, it will be necessary to keep social distance measures until a vaccine is available (which still will take some time).

On 13 May the EU was supposed to unveil summer holiday plans, but there are different positions depending on the impact of Covid-19 in different Member States. Some countries are proposing two weeks of quarantine to travellers on arrival, while others apply reciprocity. The Commission has opposed these measures and recommends opting for gradual opening of borders and a series of prevention measures in public transport, hotels, bars and restaurants.

There are also different approaches to air travel, but it seems we will not travel with limitations in the number of passengers, but with masks. The Commission has proposed three phases: essential travel, travel to destinations with low prevalence of Covid-19, and travel without restriction.

However, there are different speeds: Baltic States have created the “Baltic Bubble” with freedom of movement between the three countries; Central Europe will open a “corridor” on 15 June (DK, DE, AT, CH, CZ and SK) that will extend further. Some countries are closing their borders too tight, while others keep them open. Some countries seem to wish to open their airports for foreign visitors, while others don’t, but 15 June seems to be a crucial date for this sector, and subsequently, for tourism, a major European industry. In any case, a higher coordination is needed, as well as a strategic view of Europe as a single territory.

 

Detailed information can be found here: https://ec.europa.eu/transport/coronavirus-response_en

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